Three questions on shaping the future

A conversation with Tobias Leisgang about the challenges and opportunities involved in actively shaping the future

The future is not a fate that simply befalls us, but a space that we can actively shape. In his three-part series of articles (‘The Torch into the future’, ‘No one could have foreseen that’ and ‘How do you shape the future?’), Tobias Leisgang has shown why our thinking often artificially narrows our view of the future. [1]

But what does this look like in real-world practice? Why do people in organisations prefer to cling to the familiar past, when tomorrow’s survival is at stake? Time for some critical questions for Tobias Leisgang, presenter, futurist and guide for companies embarking on new paths.

Why do so many companies find it so difficult to look consciously to the future and set a course early on?

Tobias Leisgang: The fact that we feel comfortable in the present and within the narrow, familiar cone of light that is the probable future is deeply ingrained in us, both biologically and cognitively. But if we are honest and get to the heart of the matter, a lack of capability also lies behind this in many organisations.

Day-to-day business takes precedence within organisations. To a certain extent, this is also essential for survival. If you don’t solve the customer’s problem today, there’s no point worrying about the future, because the company simply won’t exist tomorrow. Every time we prioritise, an unconscious cost-benefit analysis takes place in the brain:

• Day-to-day business brings instant reward. I solve a current problem and, in return, receive a pat on the back from the boss or positive customer feedback today. The gain is concrete, tangible and triggers a direct reward.
• The benefit of future-oriented work (e.g. product innovation, new business models) is vague and lies in the future. When it will materialise and how significant it will be is uncertain.

The mental balance therefore almost automatically tips in favour of day-to-day business when decisions are made.

Added to this is often a gap in training. Strategic foresight and futurology are under-represented in business administration and executive programmes. You can certainly find strategic foresight in specialised Master’s programmes or Executive MBAs these days. But that remains the exception.

And even when this knowledge is present, another mechanism comes into play. From my own research, I know that established leadership patterns are extremely persistent in many medium-sized companies. Even when business successors have learnt precisely these modern approaches and bring new tools to the organisation, the familiar patterns of leadership often persist in day-to-day business operations. The ingrained influence of the existing system is usually stronger than the desire for change.

To top it all off, there is a widespread mindset: ‘The future just happens – what’s the point of thinking about it if I can’t change it anyway?’ This combination of cognitive biases, a lack of tools and existing beliefs leads to a lack of forward-looking thinking, which we observe so often.

In practice, what fears, incentive schemes, routines and power dynamics prevent visions of the future from being translated into real decisions?

Tobias Leisgang: There are a multitude of patterns that prevent companies from taking action. Here are three that I often observe:

1. Incentive schemes measure the past: Bonus and KPI schemes are based on metrics that measure past and present success (turnover, quarterly EBITDA). If you measure only what the current results are, you focus attention on the past and present and reward the linear continuation of current business practices.

2. The lack of a ‘culture of acceptable loss’: In our cultural context, failure still carries negative connotations. Anyone who dares to conduct an experiment that does not yield the hoped-for result quickly faces the accusation: ‘I knew right from the start that this crazy idea was a waste of time and money!’ [2]

Instead of recognising that a calculated experiment has yielded valuable knowledge, decision-makers prefer to play it safe. In many large corporations and SMEs, it has historically always been safer to fail using the tried-and-tested method than to succeed with a new idea.

3. Strategies lacking heart and emotion: Many strategy processes are stifled by their own rationality. Market reports are analysed, industry forecasts are pored over and Excel charts are filled in. These are cold, hard forecasts, but not genuine visions of the future. They generate no emotional pull, no ‘Damn right, that’s where we want to go together!’. If the strategy slides fail to touch anyone’s heart, they’ll simply end up gathering dust in SharePoint.

What role do experiments and existing customers play when companies want to actively shape their future?

Tobias Leisgang: Let’s start with experiments. The word ‘experiment’ itself implies that we are working with hypotheses and that a result may turn out to be ‘negative’. The trick lies in designing an experiment cleverly.

Many people believe that a prototype must be a replica of the finished solution. That makes experiments expensive and cumbersome. But if, for example, I want to test whether users prefer a smartphone in a new form factor because it fits better in their trouser pocket, I don’t need fully functional circuit board technology. A 3D-printed plastic block from an additive manufacturing machine is perfectly adequate for asking 100 customers: ‘How does this feel in your pocket?’ With minimal financial outlay and limited risk (‘affordable loss’), I gain maximum clarity. This reduces the ‘fall height’ and takes away the fear of getting started.

This is where existing customers come straight into the picture. Existing customers are wonderful sparring partners for new ideas. A loyal regular customer feels extremely valued when they’re involved early on in testing new ideas for the future. As long as the current core product continues to perform reliably, no good customer will turn away simply because they’re shown an unfinished prototype.

However, existing customers are not always the benchmark for (radically) new futures. Here, it takes courage to carry out targeted experiments with early adopters and new target groups. [3] To paraphrase Henry Ford ( ‘If I’d asked people what they wanted, they’d have said: faster horses’), this requires tangible artefacts rather than surveys.

Bonus question: What distinguishes a sober forecast from a genuine vision of the future?

Tobias Leisgang: A good bonus question. 😊

A forecast attempts to calculate what is likely to happen. It looks in the rear-view mirror, extends the trends of the past linearly into the future, and gives us a false sense of security. Forecasts turn us into passive observers.

A genuine vision of the future, on the other hand, stems from the question: ‘What kind of future do we want, and what are we prepared to do to achieve it?’. It generates emotional appeal. It doesn’t have to be planned down to the last detail. It can leave room for uncertainty. An effective vision of the future acts like a magnet, inviting everyone involved to take the first concrete step today.

Notes:

Tobias Leisgang is a facilitator and mentor for companies that want to boldly break new ground. If you’re still finding it hard to get started, feel free to visit his website or contact him on LinkedIn to take those first few steps together.

[1] Here you’ll find the three-part series of articles by Tobias Leisgang mentioned in the introduction:

The torch into the future
No one could have forseen that
How do you shape the future?

[2] ‘Affordable loss’ is one of the principles of the Effectuation method. Effectuation is an independent, non-causal decision-making logic used by start-up founders in situations of uncertainty and ambiguity.

[4] An early adopter is someone who embraces new products, technologies or services at an early stage and positions themselves as an opinion leader.

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Here you’ll find posts from the t2informatik blog series ‘Three questions…’: